Oil Prices in 2016: Groping for Logic
- Published Date: April-2016
- Number of Pages: 29
A Special Report from NewsBase Research
In NewsBase Research’s July 2014 Global Oil Forecast Service, we predicted that Saudi Arabia would “create price volatility through periods of over- and under-production in order to discourage investment in Industrial or unconventional Liquids – especially US tight oil.”
What began as a carefully calculated attack in September 2014 by Saudi’s price strategists may have morphed into a strategic error of massive scale. Saudi is destroying its Sovereign Wealth Fund to continue its price play. So why continue the attack?
In this Special Report, NewsBase Research brings hard data and cold logic to some of the arguments presented by the commentariat to answer that question. Is Saudi defending its market share? Is it a continued attack on US tight oil, or is the target now expensive conventional plays? Is it part of the proxy war with Iran or a geopolitical war of attrition with Russia? Or are there signs of political fractions between the House of Saud and Aramco?
Table of Contents
- Part One: Equilibrium Theory
- Equilibrium Theory: An Introduction
- ET Feedback Loops
- Where might it end?
Part Two: The Saudi Dilemma
- 2015 in Focus: Three Saudi Choices
- The Psych Spike Strategy
Part Three: Why Has Saudi Continued The Attack?
- Market Share
- Note: Economics of Market Share
- Geopolitical Competition with Russia
- Demand Promotion
- An Attack on Iran’s Budget
- An Attack on Carbon Control Momentum
- An Attack on Saudi’s Internal Economic Habits
- Re-Doubled Attack on US Tight Oil
- An Attack on the Muscle of New Expensive
- Conventional Production
- Has Aramco Lost Touch with Reality?
Part Four: What Happens Next?
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